2023 UK Dynasty League - Week 12


Playoff Hunt

Current Standings

The hunt for the playoffs as it stands. All-play is the record if all teams were to play each other every week. xWins is the number of wins you would have expected so far based on the all-play record. The playoff and bye % is calculated by calculating player scores since 2012 based on their rank and sampling these to give a score for each simulation. The optimal lineup is calculated and then an efficiency score is calculated to give the starting lineup score. 1000 different seasons have been simulated using the wins to date and the remaining fixtures for each team. Strength of roster is taken into account in these calculations.

Position Manager Wins Points All-Play xWins Playoff % Bye %
1 0llie 10 1648.84 103-29 9.4 100.0 100.0
2 MajorNC 9 1631.48 102-30 9.3 100.0 97.8
3 DanCoulton 8 1540.90 88-44 8.0 100.0 0.6
4 benturvill61 8 1470.36 77-55 7.0 100.0 1.6
5 Dominichudson1986 7 1386.04 68-64 6.2 98.9 0.0
6 CantBuyABucket 6 1437.92 80.5-51.5 7.3 68.0 0.0
7 Pindeco 6 1256.26 54-78 4.9 33.1 0.0
8 Bolmer 5 1044.72 28-104 2.5 0.0 0.0
9 mikepearson 4 1282.88 57.5-74.5 5.2 0.0 0.0
10 Tomcoulton10 4 1173.22 38-94 3.5 0.0 0.0
11 splangtree 3 1385.44 68-64 6.2 0.0 0.0
12 jhh82 2 1013.52 28-104 2.5 0.0 0.0

Wins over Expectation

Wins over expectation (WOE) looks at the relationship between actual wins and all-play wins. This shows how lucky or unlucky a team has been with the schedule.

The dots on the chart below show how many wins the team have, whilst the arrow shows where they should actually be if the H2H format wasn’t in place. Teams with arrows pointing right can count themselves unlucky, whilst teams with arrows pointing left are fortunate to have as many wins as they do.

Bolmer has been the luckiest so far, with 2.5 more wins than expected.

splangtree can feel hard done by, with 3.2 fewer wins than expected.


Win Projections

The following chart shows the distribution of total expected wins over the season. Any wins so far have been included in the calculation, and you would expect the spread to reduce as the season progresses and the win totals become more certain.

Projected Season Rank

Using the win totals from the chart above, the following chart shows the likelihood of each team finishing in a given position.

Point Projections for Week 13

The following chart shows the distribution of points for the upcoming week.

Using the outputs from above, the next chart shows the probability of each team of winning the week 13 matchup against their opponent.


Story of the Season

The following chart shows the performance of each team as the season has progressed. This is calculated as the xWins for each week minus the average wins each week (0.5). This strips out any influence of matchup and purely looks at your points position in a given week.

For example, an increasing line in the first half of the season followed by a decreasing line over the second half would signify good performance to start the year, but a poor run to end the season.


League Position Tracker

The next table tracks the league position by week for each team in the league. To isolate a single team’s record, double click on the legend on the right.


Matchup Importance

The following table shows the importance of the next matchup for each manager. Win shows the Playoff % if the matchup is won, and Loss shows the chances with a loss. The Current % is the playoff probability before week 13 takes place. The size of the bar represents the importance of the matchup for each team.


Using this information, we can calculate the importance of each matchup in week 13. The numbers shown give the average playoff leverage for each matchup.

Dominichudson1986 21.4 CantBuyABucket
benturvill61 6.4 Pindeco
MajorNC 0.0 Bolmer
Tomcoulton10 0.0 mikepearson
splangtree 0.0 DanCoulton
jhh82 0.0 0llie

Potential Points

The following table shows the potential points that could have been scored if the perfect squad had been played each week.

Rank Manager Points
1 0llie 1871.62
2 MajorNC 1806.94
3 DanCoulton 1787.24
4 CantBuyABucket 1774.06
5 splangtree 1742.48
6 benturvill61 1736.32
7 Dominichudson1986 1633.02
8 Tomcoulton10 1530.48
9 mikepearson 1507.54
10 Pindeco 1412.80
11 Bolmer 1412.14
12 jhh82 1170.90

The matchups for week 12 are shown below, along with the potential points for each matchup.

Week 12 Potential Points Matchups
Tomcoulton10 131.26 164.54 Bolmer
MajorNC 131.30 139.08 mikepearson
jhh82 85.78 152.82 DanCoulton
splangtree 183.48 184.14 0llie
Pindeco 104.74 127.46 Dominichudson1986
benturvill61 150.18 131.78 CantBuyABucket

Draft Picks

Projected Draft Order

The 4 rounds of the 2024 rookie draft are shown below, using the potential points order as at today.

Round 1

Pick Owner Original Owner
1 jhh82
2 Bolmer
3 Pindeco
4 mikepearson
5 Tomcoulton10
6 Tomcoulton10 splangtree
7 CantBuyABucket
8 Dominichudson1986
9 Bolmer benturvill61
10 DanCoulton
11 mikepearson MajorNC
12 0llie

Round 2

Pick Owner Original Owner
1 jhh82
2 Bolmer
3 Pindeco
4 mikepearson
5 Tomcoulton10
6 Tomcoulton10 splangtree
7 splangtree CantBuyABucket
8 Dominichudson1986
9 benturvill61
10 DanCoulton
11 mikepearson MajorNC
12 0llie

Round 3

Pick Owner Original Owner
1 jhh82
2 Bolmer
3 Pindeco
4 splangtree mikepearson
5 Tomcoulton10
6 splangtree
7 CantBuyABucket
8 Dominichudson1986
9 benturvill61
10 DanCoulton
11 Tomcoulton10 MajorNC
12 0llie

Round 4

Pick Owner Original Owner
1 jhh82
2 Bolmer
3 Pindeco
4 mikepearson
5 Pindeco Tomcoulton10
6 splangtree
7 CantBuyABucket
8 Dominichudson1986
9 benturvill61
10 DanCoulton
11 MajorNC
12 0llie


Draft Pick Likelihood

The following chart shows the likelihood of drafting at each position in the top 6. Picks 7-12 have been removed as the playoffs determine the back half of the first round.

Draft Pick
1 2 3 4 5 6 Playoffs
jhh82 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bolmer 0.0% 59.3% 40.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
mikepearson 0.0% 0.2% 18.0% 49.6% 32.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Tomcoulton10 0.0% 0.0% 15.3% 50.0% 34.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Pindeco 0.0% 40.5% 26.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 33.1%
splangtree 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 89.2% 0.0%
CantBuyABucket 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.3% 10.7% 68.0%
Dominichudson1986 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 98.9%
0llie 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
DanCoulton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
MajorNC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
benturvill61 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

Roster Comparison

Roster Maturity

This chart shows the spread of ages on each roster within the league. The narrower the box, the more concentrated the ages are, and the larger boxes will have a wide spread of ages.


2023 Trades